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Ahead of CBAM implementation, European buyers are shifting their focus to pig iron from Brazil

Average export prices for Brazilian pig iron rose by $15 – to $400/t in the first half of November. Some quotes reached $415/t. This is due to increased demand from American and European buyers.

Amid this, Brazil’s pig iron exports showed rapid growth. In October, exports rose by 56% month-on-month to 460.1 thousand tons, following a 2.4% month-on-month increase in September. The main reason for the growth in export volumes was an increase in shipments to the US – by 53% month-on-month, to 351 thousand tons at a price of $394/ton on FOB terms. This indicates that the industry has emerged from the summer slump caused by US tariff policy. Overall, Brazilian pig iron exports grew by 5.7% y/y in January-October, to 3.4 million tons.

According to the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), total pig iron production in Brazil in October amounted to 2.3 million tons, down 6.1% compared to September. Over the ten months, output fell by 1.4% y/y – to 21.8 million tons.

It is worth noting that European buyers, especially from Italy, are seeking to increase purchases of Brazilian pig iron ahead of the introduction of CBAM in early 2026 and after the ban on pig iron supplies from Russia comes into force. In particular, in October, Brazil supplied 75,000 tons of pig iron to Europe at a price of $427/ton on FOB terms.

Currently, the growth in demand from European buyers appears to be situational, but it will become at least a medium-term trend. CBAM payments for Brazilian pig iron turned out to be lower than expected. As a result, Brazil will become the main supplier of pig iron to Italy from January 2026.

On the Black Sea pig iron market, average prices (on a Black Sea FOB basis) stabilized at $313/t in November, as in October. At the same time, Russian pig iron was supplied to Turkey at a price of $342/t in September.

Pig iron imports to Turkey increased sharply in September. According to TUIK, pig iron deliveries increased by 131% y/y to 168.5 thousand tons. The entire volume consisted of deliveries from Russia, which increased by 275% y/y.

Overall, in January–September, pig iron imports to Turkey increased by 66% y/y to 1.65 million tons. Russia not only almost doubled its supplies but also took the leading position (77% of the import market) with a volume of 1.3 million tons.

Against the backdrop of growing imports, Turkey’s own pig iron production is declining. According to WorldSteel, output fell by 8.2% y/y – to 7.9 million tons in January–September. At the same time, in October, production grew by 3.1% y/y to 871,000 tons for the third month in a row.

In other regional markets, pig iron prices moved in different directions. Domestic pig iron prices in China (including 13% VAT) remained at $407/t for most of the month, compared to $412/t at the end of October. According to Metallplace, pig iron prices on the Indian market remained stable (at $343/t) for most of November, falling to $340/t at the end of the month.

As previously reported, global pig iron production in January–October 2025 decreased by 1.3% compared to the same period last year, to 1.15 billion tons. The largest pig iron producing countries for the period were China – 711.4 million tons (-1.8% y/y), India – 127.6 million tons (+6.9% y/y), and Japan – 48.8 million tons (-4% y/y).