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Anybody looking at China’s vast aluminum sector may be struck by a sense of deja vu, as the issues of last year appear set for a repeat performance in 2015.

The sector is still plagued by overcapacity and poor profitability, but perhaps the biggest concern is the apparent lack of any willingness to deal with the issues.

China produced about 27.5 million tons of aluminum last year, according to consultants AZ China, a figure above the official 24.4 million tones, which AZ China says doesn’t include some privately-owned smelters. This represents roughly half of global output, but is still some way short of China’s capacity to produce 36 million tons per annum.

China will add as much as 3.5 million tones of new production this year, but not all of this will be fully utilized, AZ China said in a Jan. 9 briefing note. With some additional capacity at existing plants, some planned closure of older smelters and the new plants, AZ China expects total Chinese aluminum output to reach 29 million tons in 2015, a gain of almost 5.5 percent on the 2014 figure.

The risk to this forecast is whether prices for aluminium low, and rising costs of inputs such as alumina, will force smelters to close down. And if some smelters are forced to close, will the pattern of 2014 repeat? What happened last year was that as Shanghai aluminum prices declined in the first quarter, some plants were idled.

But increased subsidies from local governments concerned by the loss of employment and taxes resulted in capacity returning in the second half, helping to end a rally in prices. As of the fourth quarter of last year, only 11 smelters, or 32 percent of China’s capacity, were profitable, according to an AZ China report on Jan. 26.

This sets the stage for another year of tug-of-war as local authorities in China juggle supporting loss-making smelters against the jobs and taxes the plants provide. If history is a guide, some smelters may be idled, but they can resume output rather quickly should prices improve.