The operating capacities of domestic alumina refineries varied in May. Due to an overall decline in bauxite prices and a significant rebound in alumina prices, the profitability of alumina enterprises improved, leading to partial resumption of production at plants that had previously undergone maintenance and production cuts. Meanwhile, some enterprises conducted maintenance and production cuts. Overall, the national operating alumina capacity saw a slight MoM decline in May.

Also read: Profitability improves: China's operating alumina capacity in metallurgy expected to rebound in June

By region

In May, multiple alumina refineries in Guizhou and Guangxi in south China underwent maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decrease in operating capacity. The operating rates fell by 10.2 and 1.3 percentage points M-o-M, respectively.

In May, the production decline caused by maintenance and production cuts in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan in the earlier period was further reflected. Meanwhile, after the improvement in profitability, some alumina capacity resumed production in May. Overall, the alumina operating rates in Shandong and Henan fell by 4.8 and 2.9 percentage points M-o-M, respectively, while the alumina operating rate in Shanxi rebounded by 1.4 percentage points M-o-M.

Forecast for June: As of May 30, according to SMM's daily cost-profit model, the average profitability of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/mt. It is expected that alumina capacity will gradually resume production and new capacity will be further released in June. Overall, the domestic operating metallurgical alumina capacity is expected to rebound to around 87.95 million tonnes per year in June.